EWER Trimester Report 9 (Oct-Jan 2012)

May 3, 2012

EWER Trimester Report 9 (Out-Jan 2012)


Executive Summary

This conflict potential analysis report presents an analysis of monitoring findings from CICR and Belunai??i??s Early Warning and Early Response (EWER) program between October 2011 and January 2012. The report marks the ninth report published since EWER monitoring began in February 2009. Trimester IX draws from data collected in 42 target subai???districts. The first part of the report presents national findings (page 7), reviewing trends in the number and types of violent incidents. The report then describes the situational change in Timor-Leste (page 20) according to 62 social, economic, political and external indicators affecting the potential for conflict in communities. Recommendations (page 27) targeted to specific conflict prevention actors, provide guidance to stakeholders as to where (which sub-districts) policy suggestions are most applicable. As part of a refinement of this publication to increase the relevance of EWER findings to key stakeholders, recommendations are highlighted throughout the narrative as they arise in response to particular issues. Finally, after an internal review to refine the statistical data analysis, the Conflict Potential Index (CPI) will be re-launched during Trimester X (February 2012 ai??i?? May 2012).

The total number of incidents in Trimester IX (263) went down slightly from 267 between June ai??i?? September 2011. The notable decrease in incidents in Dili (from 61 to 37) was offset in part by increases in Lautem (from 1 to 12) and Covalima districts (from 4 to 16). Bazartete sub-district (LiquiAi??a) recorded the highest incident number for the second consecutive trimester. There were 7 conflict-related murders recorded from October 2011 ai??i?? January 2012. More positively, over the four months, PNTL officers responded to conflict instances on 10% more occasions. The trend of increasing incidents through the end of year harvest (established through EWER since 2009) continued in 2011. From a peak of 80 in November, the number of incidents fell to 53 in January. Overall, conflict remains a private affair, with 124 incidents occurring on private property and family members, farmers and neighbors initiating the majority of incidents. Of the large number of conflict cases remaining unresolved, many relate to claims over land.

Analysis of EWER situational data revealed that Maliana (Bobonaro) and Bazartete (LiquiAi??a) are the most vulnerable sub-districts to environmental, social and political conflict. Nationwide, fewer natural resource-related conflicts were reported. However, political party activities increased divisions within communities prior to the official campaign periods for the 2012 presidential election. Other notable changes observed included a rise in barlake (dowry) prices in 30 out of the 42 sub-districts, and a visible increase in the number of young people seeking employment.

Key recommendations encourage conflict-prevention actors, including the government through the PNTL, as well as local and international civil society to optimize allocation of peace strengthening resources in volatile areas, including, but not limited to, Maliana (Bobonaro) and Bazartete (LiquiAi??a) sub-districts. It is also suggested that research-orientated organizations consider the link between infrastructure projects and local employment. Belun and CICR welcome opportunities to engage in open dialogue with, and support peace building stakeholders on how best to implement recommendations put forward in this report.