Executive Summary
This report presents an analysis of the conflict potential in Timor-Leste based on monitoring findings from CICR and Belunai??i??s Early Warning Early Response (EWER) program during Trimester X from February to May 2012. EWER monitoring began in February 2009 and currently draws data from 42 target sub-districts. The report is presented in three parts, the first of which delivers the national findings on violent incidents and reviews trends based on quantity and type (Page 6). The report then goes on to describe situational changes in Timor-Leste (Page 19) drawing from 62 social, economic, political and external indicators impacting the conflict potential in different communities. Finally, the report delivers recommendations to specific conflict prevention actors (government, international and civil society) based on this data, assisting them to identify areas of particular importance.
Trimester X saw the total number of incidents jump from 263 in Trimester IX to 330, the highest recorded number of incidents for the EWER program thus far. Dili, in particular, saw a notable increase in incidents from 37 to 79, following a significant decline in the previous trimester, and Viqueque and Baucau districts recorded increases of 16 and 14 incidents respectively. Presidential elections on March 17 and April 16 contributed to the rise in incidents, accounting for around 20% of incidents across the trimester. Bazartete sub-district in LiquiAi??a recorded the highest number of incidents for the third consecutive trimester. However, Ainaro district saw a notable decrease from 24 incidents to just 6. Physical assault remained the most common form of violence and instances of property damage rose. However group violence, including both group fights and a new category, group bashings (groups attacking a single victim), proved the most concerning, recording a rise in incidents for the fourth consecutive trimester. Private residences continued to be the primary location for the majority of incidents, accounting for 35%. The categories of initiators of violence were expanded to include youth and displaced persons. This shift allowed the data to capture a significant trend in youth-initiated violence which accounted for 29% of all incidents. On a positive note, PNTL continued its upward trend as responders to incidents, increasing by 8%.
Analysis of the situational data showed that once again Maliana (Bobonaro) and Bazartete (LiquiAi??a) sub-districts continue to be the most vulnerable to environmental, social and political conflict. Natural-resource conflicts continued their decline, and violence due to alcohol also fell widely. Uncertainty over the national land law continues to be a major cause of violence. Food security issues and an overall increase in natural disasters contributed to unease, particularly in Ermera and Oe-cusse. Youth unemployment continued to rise as expected.
Key recommendations this trimester promote the need for conflict prevention actors, including government, development and civil society actors, to better target their conflict prevention and response resources in at-risk sub-districts. It encourages them to respond to issues of contention including the national land law, youth engagement, food security, disaster risk reduction and post-election cooperation. Belun and CICR welcome opportunities to engage in open dialogue with peacebuilding stakeholders on how best to implement recommendations put forward in this report.